Sales: According to the Baldwin County Association of Realtors/Multiple Listing Service, September residential sales in Baldwin County totaled 456 units, up 24.3 percent from last September. Since the hitting its peak in 2005 (466 units), Baldwin County residential sales had not hit the 400 mark since during the month of September, bottoming out at 210 units in 2007. Sales have been on a slow and steady incline during the month since 2010. Year-to-date sales in September (4,102) were 15 percent above September 2014 (3,557). Two more resources to review market: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: September results were 61 units or 15 percent above our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 3,780 closed transactions while the actual sales were 4,102 units, a rise of 8.5 percent.
Supply: The Baldwin County housing inventory in September was 3,050 units, a decrease of 2 percent from September 2014. The area’s housing inventory has declined by 50.3 percent from the month of September peak in 2006 (6,137 units). There was 6.7 months of housing supply in September 2015 (6.0+/- months considered equilibrium for July NSA) versus 8.5 months of supply in September 2014. Baldwin County continues to hover near the equilibrium, as September months of supply has dipped consistently since its August 2007 peak of 29.0. September inventory decreased 0.9 percent from the the prior month.
Demand: Baldwin County residential sales increased 1.6 percent from the prior month. This direction unfavorably contrasts with local historical data indicating that September sales, on average (2010-14), decrease from the month of August by 13.4 percent.
Existing single family home sales accounted for 60 percent (down 1 percent from September 2014) of total sales while 11 percent (up from 8 percent in September 2014) were new home sales and 29 percent (down from 31 percent in September 2014) were condo buyers.
Pricing: The Baldwin County median sales price in September was $200,338, an increase of 5 percent from last September ($190,000). The median sales price did slip 4.4 percent below the the prior month. This data contrast with historical data that indicates on average (2010-14) that the September median sales price increases from the month of August by 0.8 percent. The Center highly recommends consulting with a real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry Perspective: “Our forecast for the year is largely unchanged despite recent market volatility. Fundamentals are positive, suggesting potential for some improvement in the fourth quarter,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While core personal consumption expenditures experienced their weakest gain in more than four years in July, real consumer spending rebounded during the month and August auto sales were stronger than they have been in a decade. Consumers may get an added boost during the year from subdued inflation given the stronger dollar and low oil prices. Overall, we anticipate economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2015, up slightly from 2.1 percent in the prior forecast. Consumer and government spending as well as nonresidential and residential investment are expected to contribute to growth while net exports and inventory investment will likely pose headwinds.” For full report click HERE.
Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at [email protected]
The Baldwin County Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Baldwin County Association of Reatlors to better serve gulf coast consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions. ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.