Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa area residential sales totaled 158 units in October , an increase in sales growth of 9.7 percent or 22 units below the same period last year. Year-to-date sales through October were up 10.1 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: October results were 3 units or 1.9 percent above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through October projected 1,806 closed transactions while the actual sales were right on the mark at 1,806 units.
Supply: Tuscaloosa October housing inventory totaled 1,267 units, a decrease of 11.9 percent from October 2014. October inventory dipped 5.9 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicates that October inventory on average (2010-’14) decreases from the month of September by 1.7 percent. Inventory has now declined 34.6 percent from the month of October peak (1,937 units) reached in 2007.
Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 19.7 percent year-over-year in October to 8.0 months. Restated, at the October sales pace, it would take 8.0 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6.0 months during month of October. The encouraging news remains that the inventory-to-sales ratio has now declined 57.3 percent from the month of October peak (18.8 months) reached in 2010.
Demand: October residential sales were 16.8 percent below the prior month. The decrease is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that October sales on average (2010-’14) decrease from the month of September by 6 percent. Existing single family home sales accounted for 84 percent (down from 86 percent in October 2014) of total sales while 9 percent (unchanged from October 2014) were new home sales and 7 percent (down from 8 percent in October 2014) were condo buyers.
Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in October was $146,000, representing a decrease of 9.3 percent when compared to October 2014. The median sales price dipped 9.5 percent from September’s price. This month-over-month price direction contrasts with historical data indicating that the October median sales price on average (2010-’14) increases from the month of September by 1.6 percent. It should also be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. The Center highly recommends consulting with a real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry Perspective: “I think we will see the 2015 November and December sales outperform the same periods from 2014,” said Nathan Dendy, team leader/CEO of Keller Williams Tuscaloosa and member of the ACRE Leadership Council. “However, due to a limited listing inventory in the upper price ranges, the average (and median) sales price for November and December of 2015 will be lower than the average sales price from December and November of 2014.”
Click on infographics below to view gallery.
Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at [email protected] The Tuscaloosa Residential Monthly Report work product developed in conjunction with the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors to better serve West Alabama consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions, and ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. Join the Center mailing list HERE.