HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY: We are forecasting a classic early July day in Alabama on this Fourth of July. Partly sunny, hot, humid with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Most of the storms will come from about 2:00 until 8:00 p.m., and the chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in four. Where the storms do form, they will pack a punch; SPC has a “marginal risk” of severe storms defined today over North Alabama…
The main threat will come from small areas of strong straight line winds (wet microbursts). But ALL summer storms pack very frequent lightning. If you hear thunder, go inside. Lightning safety isn’t hard.
The high today will be in the mid 90s in most places.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: This should be the two days with the highest coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms with colder air aloft in place. We can’t promise rain for everyone, but any one spot stands about a one in three chance of getting a passing storm, with the higher odds coming during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the low 90s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Warmer air aloft means showers and storms will be fewer in number, and temperatures rise into the mid 90s with a pretty decent amount of sunshine both days.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs generally in the mid 90s.
And, we hold in this pattern through much of next week. To learn more about summer weather forecasting in Alabama, see this essay.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. The typical peak of the season comes later, in August and September.
AT THE BEACH: The weather looks fantastic along the coast this week with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only a small risk of storm daily. Highs will be in the 87-90 degree range on the immediate coast, with 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 87 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.
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For more weather news and information from James Spann and his weather team, visit Alabama WX.