Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 107 units during November, up 29 percent from the same period in 2015. Year to date, home sales through November increased 15 percent from the same period of 2015. Another resource to review is the Annual Report.
Click here for all Morgan County residential data.
Forecast: November sales were 25 units or 30 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 1,153 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,374 units, a 19 percent positive difference.
Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 706 units, a decrease of 9 percent from November 2015. Inventory was 2.2 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicate November inventory on average (2011-15) decreases from October by 7.9 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio during November was 6.6 months of housing supply. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 6.6 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months during November. In November 2015, the supply stood at 9.3 months. The months of supply figure has declined 56.6 percent from the November peak reached in 2010 (15.2 months), which is encouraging news.
Demand: November residential sales dipped 5.3 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate November sales on average (2011-15) decrease from October by 26.3 percent. The average days on market until a listing sold was 82 days, down 26 percent from the previous November.
Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during November was $130,500, which is 4.4 percent above November 2015’s $125,000 and 3 percent above the October median sales price. Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “The HPSI (home purchase sentiment index) fell in October for the third straight month from its record high in July, reaching the lowest level since March. Recent erosion in sentiment likely reflects, in part, enhanced uncertainty facing consumers today,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate. Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013, weighing on the index. However, this component of the HPSI is volatile from month to month, and the firming trend in wage gains from the October jobs report, if sustained, may foreshadow an improving view in the near future.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.