Sales: According to the Cullman MLS, Cullman County area residential sales totaled 59 units during November, up 11.3 percent from the same period a year earlier. Year-to-date sales were up 9 percent from the same period in 2015. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of Cullman’s real estate data, click here.
Demand: November residential sales increased 3.5 percent from the prior month. This direction contrasts with historical data indicating that November sales on average (2011-15) decrease from October by 0.1 percent. Days on the market until a listing sold was 178 days, 0.6 percent slower than the same period in 2015 (177 days).
Forecast: November sales were 11 units or 23 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 641 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 684, a favorable difference of 6 percent.
Supply: Cullman County area housing inventory totaled 502 units, which is 6.7 percent below the supply in November 2015. The inventory-to-sales ratio in November was 8.5 months of housing supply. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 8.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. This is 78 percent lower than the 2008 peak (39.1 months of supply). The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) for November is approximately 6 months, so continued improvement in this area would be welcome news.
Pricing: The Cullman County median sales price in November was $142,900, an increase of 5.2 percent from November 2015 ($135,900). The median sales price was 6 percent above the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data (2011-15) reflecting that the November median sales price on average increases from October by 11 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month to month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns. ACRE recommends consulting a local real estate professional.
Industry perspective: “The HPSI (home purchase sentiment index) fell in October for the third straight month from its record high in July, reaching the lowest level since March. Recent erosion in sentiment likely reflects, in part, enhanced uncertainty facing consumers today,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate. Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013, weighing on the index. However, this component of the HPSI is volatile from month to month, and the firming trend in wage gains from the October jobs report, if sustained, may foreshadow an improving view in the near future.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Cullman November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.