Sales: According to the Wiregrass Multiple Listing Service, Wiregrass area residential sales totaled 78 units during November, 20 percent above the number recorded during the same period the previous year. Year-to-date home sales in November were 3.3 percent higher than the same period of 2015. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Wiregrass area housing data, click here.
Forecast: November sales were 12 units and 18 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 842 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 840 units, .24 percent below the forecast sales.
Supply: Wiregrass area housing inventory totaled 733 units, a decrease of 11 percent from November 2015. Inventory was down 5.5 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data that indicate November inventory on average (2011-15) decreases from October by 2.7 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio during November of 9.4 months of housing supply was down 26 percent from the same period a year earlier. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months during November, so this indicates the continued presence of a buyer’s market.
Demand: November residential sales were up 37 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate November sales on average (2011-15) decrease from October by 14.6 percent. The average days on market until a listing sold was 157 days, 16.5 percent faster than November 2015 (188 days).
Pricing: The Wiregrass area median sales price in November was $100,000, a decrease of 20.6 percent from November 2015 ($125,900) and a 7.5 percent increase from the previous month. This direction contrasts with historical seasonal data (2011-15) that reflect the November median sales price on average decreases from October by 7.6 percent. It should be noted that the differing sample size (number of residential sales of the comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss prices, as they will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “The HPSI (home purchase sentiment index) fell in October for the third straight month from its record high in July, reaching the lowest level since March. Recent erosion in sentiment likely reflects, in part, enhanced uncertainty facing consumers today,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate. Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013, weighing on the index. However, this component of the HPSI is volatile from month to month, and the firming trend in wage gains from the October jobs report, if sustained, may foreshadow an improving view in the near future.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Wiregrass Region November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.