Your Saturday is going to be unseasonably warm since warm air advection kicked in over night. As you can see from the temperature plot at my station in Helena, the temperature was falling pretty much as expected until 10 pm when it leveled off for the rest of the night as the warm air advection got underway. The sky will be cloudy at times today with peeks at the sun here and there. There could also be some light drizzle during the day, but drizzle is more likely this evening and early Sunday morning. It will be unseasonably warm today with highs in the upper 60s. Our 30-year average high for this time of February is around 57. Interesting to note the records for this date are 79 and 14.
If you are beach bound, you can expect to see mostly sunny skies through the day on Tuesday with a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Highs will be in the 70s today and tomorrow, then falling back into the 60s Monday through Wednesday. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.
The upper air pattern will feature a trough moving across the Great Lakes and New England on Sunday and Monday. While that is well north of us, there will be a front dragging through the Southeast US coming out of a surface low over Pennsylvania on Sunday. Rain chances go up somewhat on Sunday with the frontal system, but it still appears likely that the showers will be scattered. Aloft, the GFS still holds a closed low over northern Mexico through the first of the week.
That closed low begins to come our way on Monday and Tuesday. As it approaches during the latter half of Tuesday and into Wednesday, a surface low will develop along the Texas Gulf Coast and move eastward raising the likelihood of showers for Tuesday evening and the first half of Wednesday. The pattern is one that can bring wintery weather into portions of the Southeast US, but as you’ll see in the video, the atmosphere is just too warm for any winter mischief. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 50s thanks to the passage of the upper trough and a return to a northwesterly flow.
The northwesterly flow aloft continues into Thursday with highs staying in the 50s. By Friday and into Saturday, an upper ridge works into the eastern US from the Central US so our temperatures gradually warm into the 60s Friday and Saturday with dry weather.
Looking into voodoo country, the upper air pattern goes northwesterly by the 22nd of February producing some chilly days for us. A strong upper trough moves out of the Central US around the 24th of February and across the southern Appalachians by the 26th signaling a couple of days of stormy weather for us.
I’m going to be helping staff the ABC 3340 booth at the World of Wheels today from noon to about 3 pm. If you have plans to be at the BJCC, be sure to stop by our booth and say hello. Tonight I’ve very excited to be working with Brenda Ladun at the Alabama Wildlife Center’s (AWC) charity event, All About Chocolate. The AWC does so much to help our feathered wildlife return to the wild when their world collides with our world. You can get information about the event here with tickets available at the door. Hope to see you there, too!
Enjoy the unseasonably warm day! Godspeed.