James Spann: Dry today, but storms arrive in Alabama by tomorrow afternoon

James Spann: Strong storms possible in Alabama Friday afternoon, night from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

SUMMER PREVIEW CONTINUES: An upper ridge will keep Alabama’s weather dry and very warm today; the sky will be partly sunny thanks to high cirrus clouds overhead, and we rise into the 86- to 89-degree range again this afternoon. But, to the north and west, strong to severe storms are possible from East Texas through parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, and over to the middle Atlantic coast as an upper low lifts out of the Southwest.

STORMS RETURN TO ALABAMA: Clouds increase across the state tonight, and we will continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a “marginal risk” of severe storms for a decent part of the state.

While there will be a decent amount of instability (surface-based CAPE values will be near 3,000 j/kg tomorrow afternoon), wind fields and lapse rates will be weak. Heavier storms could produce gusty winds and small hail as they pass through; no tornadoes are expected in this environment.

The main window for showers and storms will come from noon until midnight; it certainly won’t rain all 12 hours, but a few passing showers and storms are likely. Rain amounts of around one-half inch are likely, with isolated heavier amounts possible. We will take all of the rain we can get since the pattern looks very dry over the weekend and through all of next week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Early morning clouds Saturday will give way to a mostly sunny afternoon; the day will be cooler, with a high in the mid 70s. Then, on Sunday, we will forecast sunshine in full supply with a high in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will keep our weather warm and dry, with mostly sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s.

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