Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa-area residential sales totaled 204 units during April, down slightly from 212 homes sold during March 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: April results were 18 units or 8 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through April projected 752 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 766 units.
Supply: Tuscaloosa April housing inventory totaled 928 units, a decrease of 22 percent from April 2016. April inventory dipped by 1 percent compared to March. Historical data indicate that April inventory on average (2012-16) increases from March by 2.3 percent. Inventory has now declined 53 percent from the April peak (1,964 units) reached in 2008.
Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 19 percent year-over-year during April to 4.5 months. Restated, at the April sales pace, it would take 4.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during April.
Demand: April residential sales were 8 percent below the prior month. This contrasts with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that April sales on average (2012-16) increase from March by 2.7 percent. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 81 percent of total sales (down from 83 percent in April 2016), while 7 percent were new home sales (down from 11 percent) and 12 percent were condo sales (up from 6 percent).
Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in April was $165,000, an increase of 4 percent compared to April 2016. The median sales price was down 3 percent from March’s price. Historical data (2012-16) indicate that the median sales price in April typically decreases from March by 0.2 percent. It should be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “The Home Purchase Sentiment Index returned to its longer-term trend line after reclaiming ground lost last month. This is aligned with our market forecast of about 3 percent sales growth in 2017,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Historically strong inflation-adjusted house price gains are tempering consumer sentiment, whereas consumer optimism regarding the ease of getting a mortgage reached a survey high. On balance, housing continues on a gradual growth track.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Tuscaloosa April Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.