RADAR CHECK: We have a few scattered thunderstorms across parts of Central Alabama early this morning, moving southeast.
A moist airmass remains parked across the state today, and with a broad upper trough over the region and a weak northwest flow aloft, we will maintain the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms through early tonight. The rain won’t be as widespread as yesterday, but more scattered in nature. Some of the afternoon storms will be strong; the Storm Prediction Center has a “marginal risk” of severe weather defined for about the southern half of the state — areas generally along and south of U.S. 82.
The main threat will come from strong straight-line winds. Away from the thunderstorms, we expect a mix of sun and clouds today with a high in the mid to upper 80s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change. Expect intervals of sun tomorrow and Sunday, and once again potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs will be in the 87- to 90-degree range. Very typical weather for June.
NEXT WEEK: Showers and storms should be more numerous Monday as a surface front approaches from the west, and there is evidence the air could be a little drier Tuesday through Thursday, with fewer showers and slightly lower humidity levels.
TROPICS: Global models continue to develop a broad tropical low over the far southern Gulf of Mexico next week. The reliable European (ECMWF) model suggests the low will drift westward, in the general direction of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, Texas. We do note the Canadian global model (GEM) develops a significant tropical system and moves it toward the Florida Panhandle, but that is an outlier and is rejected for now. Bottom line: If you have a beach trip planned next week to places like Gulf Shores or Panama City Beach, odds are good you won’t have any trouble, but just keep an eye on it.
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