TODAY: We’re starting the day out with a few clouds across the Tennessee River Valley along with some patchy fog and a few showers, all thanks to the continuation of a weak frontal boundary that has remained in place for the last several days. It appears that this boundary will slide a little south later today, primarily this evening, potentially increasing the coverage of showers and storms for central Alabama. I expect to see highs reach the lower 90s again unless your location happens to come under the influence of one of the showers or storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe storms for the northern third of Alabama, generally along and north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Talladega. Much like we saw yesterday, storms that go severe will be isolated and will produce damaging straight-line wind. And, like we saw yesterday, warnings for these events will be hard to issue to catch the short-lived downbursts that occur.
THE NEXT WEEK: The good news for us is that the upper air pattern will continue, with a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. The trough will remain in place fairly much unchanged through the first of next week. Monday we begin to see signs of the trough pulling northward somewhat, allowing the western U.S. ridge to push into the Middle Mississippi River Valley from Tuesday through Thursday. This could lead to slightly warmer temperatures for central Alabama, with highs in the lower 90s over the weekend and into Monday, and in the lower to middle 90s toward the middle of next week.
With the trough remaining in place, the weak frontal boundary should push into South Alabama by Saturday, allowing the focus of showers and storms to move closer to the coast. But we will stay with a daily threat of storms in the 20 to 40 percent range.
TROPICS: The tropics remain somewhat active. Tropical Depression 4 came to life yesterday afternoon, but it is forecast to remain a depression as it moves northwestward, north of the Leeward Islands. It is likely to dissipate by next Monday as it enters a less favorable environment for the tropical depression. In the eastern North Pacific, there remain two areas of disturbed weather, neither of which poses any threat to land.
BEACH FORECAST: The weather at the beach will include the possibility of a passing shower just about every day for the next seven days, with highs in the upper 80s. There is no indication of any all-day rain situation, so you should be able to enjoy the beach with only short interruptions for a passing shower. Please heed those showers and don’t become a lightning statistic. The rip current threat is low for the next couple of days. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
BEYOND NEXT WEEK: Looking into voodoo country, the big takeaway from the Global Forecast System projections is that we stay out of the excessive heat but the western U.S. stays in the broiler.For more weather news and information, visit AlabamaWx.