TODAY: It seems like the early morning radar and satellite images for the last several days have all been similar. Again this morning we have clouds and showers across the Tennessee River Valley, mainly the eastern half. Temperatures are starting out again in the 70s, and with slightly more clouds, and showers becoming a tad more numerous, we should see highs confined primarily to the upper 80s. Spots that stay shower free well into the afternoon could reach the lower 90s again. While not mentioned in the Storm Prediction Center outlook, I think there remains a risk for isolated severe storms this afternoon as CAPE values surge to around 3000 J/kg across central Alabama.
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: Showers will occur primarily across south Alabama on Saturday, but shower chances will stick around north and central Alabama as precipitable water values stay fairly high.
Sunday and Monday the Global Forecast System is showing precipitable water values dropping below 1.2 inches for the northern half of Alabama, so I think we can drop the mention of showers for those two days, but we’ll have to keep them in the forecast for south Alabama. Both of these days the GFS Model Output Statistics guidance drops dew points into the mid 60s. While not nearly as nice as mid 50s, these values should be noticeable and make the highs of 89 to 93 feel not quite as hot.
The upper trough begins to pull north of us Tuesday, with weak upper ridging in place by Wednesday and holding into Thursday. These look like they could be some of the warmest days of the summer, with highs in the lower and middle 90s. I note here that the GFS MOS does not agree with this thinking, keeping highs around 90. I think the upper air pattern supports higher temperatures.
A strong short wave moving across Canada on Friday will dig into the eastern U.S., strengthening the trough and pushing the upper ridge back to the west. This keeps us out of excessive heat, with highs in the range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Unfortunately, moisture levels come back up, so showers return to the forecast Wednesday and stay a possibility through the end of the week.
BEACH FORECAST: The weather at the beach will include the possibility of passing showers just about every day for the next seven days, with highs in the upper 80s. There is no indication of any all-day rain situation, so you should be able to enjoy the beach with only short interruptions for a passing shower. Please heed those showers and don’t become a lightning statistic. The rip current threat is low for the next couple of days. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
TROPICS: In the tropical Atlantic we are still focused on Tropical Depression Four. It is still struggling and likely to remain a depression before dissipating late Sunday or early Monday. The eastern North Pacific is a little quieter, too, with just one area of real concern. And that area will remain well out to sea away from the Mexican coast.
BEYOND NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to keep a trough over the eastern third of the U.S. and a strong upper ridge over the Rockies. This pattern promotes near- average temperatures for the eastern half of the country. The continuity of the trough over the eastern U.S. is certainly good news to all the people living east of the Rockies, but the heat for the western states just does not seem to want to let go.
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