Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa-area residential sales totaled 280 units during June, up from 269 homes sold during June 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: June results were 14 units or 5 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through June projected 1,268 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,328 units.
Supply: Tuscaloosa June housing inventory totaled 939 units, a decrease of 22 percent from June 2016. June inventory decreased by 3.8 percent compared to May. Historical data indicate that June inventory on average (2012-16) increases from May by 1.4 percent. Inventory has now declined 52 percent from the June peak (1,971 units) reached in 2008.
Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 25 percent year-over-year during June to 3.4 months. Restated, at the June sales pace, it would take 3.4 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during June.
Demand: June residential sales were 0.7 percent below the prior month. This is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that June sales on average (2012-16) decrease from May by 0.9 percent. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 85 percent of total sales (down from 86 percent in June 2016), while 10 percent were new home sales (up from 7 percent) and 5 percent were condo sales (down from 7 percent).
Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in June was $169,900, an increase of 3 percent compared to June 2016. The median sales price was up 1.6 percent from May’s price. Historical data (2012-16) indicate that the median sales price in June typically decreases from May by 2.4 percent. It should be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “While second-quarter growth is poised to rebound, we expect growth to moderate through the remainder of 2017. Consumer spending, traditionally the largest contributor to economic growth, is sluggish and is lagging positive consumer sentiment and solid hiring,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While labor market slack continues to diminish, wage growth is not accelerating and inflation has moved further below the Fed’s target. These conditions support our call that the Fed will continue gradual monetary policy normalization, announce its balance sheet tapering policy in September, and wait until December for additional data, especially on inflation, before raising the fed funds rate for the third time this year.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Tuscaloosa June Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.