A front just northwest of Alabama will slide into Central Alabama and become stationary as it goes parallel to the upper flow. The upper flow remains nearly zonal through Tuesday with a steady parade of weak short waves moving through that flow. That continues to keep the weather unsettled across the Southeast US as thunderstorms become possible every day driven primarily by afternoon heating while those weak short waves help to aide in the development of storms. These short waves will help to keep storms active even after the afternoon heating has gone down. Highs should remain in the upper 80s.
From Tuesday into the end of the week, a weak ridge becomes the primary feature in the overall upper air pattern, so traveling weather systems are pushed well north of Alabama and stay that way until Saturday. A strong short wave moving into the western Great Lakes on Saturday will help to beat down the ridge over the Southeast US and force it back to the west. At the surface the air mass remains very humid with precipitable water values running very closed to 2 inches. This means our forecasts will have to maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms into next weekend. Clouds and showers should keep the highs on most days in the upper 80s though the latter part of the week could see highs push into the lower 90s.
Rainfall through next Thursday morning is likely to be around 1 inch for those places that do see showers or thunderstorms. No organized severe weather is expected for the next few days.
A disturbance north-northwest of Puerto Rico has some chance of slow development in coming days, but whatever forms is expected to recurve into the open Atlantic and won’t be a threat to the U.S. East Coast. The rest of the Atlantic basin was quiet. Eastern North Pacific remained more active with Jova and an area of disturbed weather off the southern Mexican coast.
At the beach, scattered showers are forecast each day for the weekend and into next week with highs mainly in the upper 80s. Rip currents are forecast to be moderate today, so swimmers should use caution along the beaches. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!
Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern over the eastern half of the country is forecast to remain with weak troughing and keeping us out of any excessive heat. But the GFS is building a fairly substantial ridge over the eastern US around the 27th of August, so the latter part of August might see some fairly hot days.
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I’m heading up to Gadsden this morning for the “Kids Town Live” at the Imagination Place in downtown Gadsden. If you have the chance, be sure to stop by and say hello.. Have a great day and Godspeed.
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