Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa-area residential sales totaled 251 units during July, up from 250 homes sold during July 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: July results were 22 units or 8 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through July projected 1,541 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,579 units.
Supply: Tuscaloosa July housing inventory totaled 964 units, a decrease of 18 percent from July 2016. July inventory increased by 2.7 percent compared to June. Historical data indicate that July inventory on average (2012-16) decreases from June by 3.1 percent. Inventory has now declined 49.6 percent from the July peak (1,914 units) reached in 2007.
Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 18.3 percent year-over-year during July to 3.8 months. Restated, at the July sales pace, it would take 3.8 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during July.
Demand: July residential sales were 10.4 percent below the prior month. This contrasts with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that July sales on average (2012-16) increase from June by 5.9 percent. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 80 percent of total sales (down from 82 percent in July 2016), while 11.5 percent were new home sales (up from 9 percent) and 8.5 percent were condo sales (down from 9 percent).
Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in July was $180,000, an increase of 5.9 percent compared to July 2016. The median sales price was up 5.9 percent from June’s price. Historical data (2012-16) indicate that the median sales price in July typically increases from June by 0.8 percent. It should be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “We are keeping our full-year economic growth outlook at 2 percent as risks to our forecast are roughly balanced,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “On the upside, consumer spending growth might not moderate as much as we have accounted for in our forecast. A build-up in inventory also should be positive for growth this quarter and nonresidential investment in structures will likely continue to improve as oil prices stabilize.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Tuscaloosa July Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.