Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 133 units during August, down 12.5 percent from the same month in 2016. Home sales in Morgan County during August 2016 totaled 152 units. Another resource to review is the Annual Report.
Click here for all Morgan County residential data.
Forecast: August sales were 5 units or 3.6 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through August projected 960 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,023 units.
Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 660 units, a decrease of 14.8 percent from August 2016. Inventory was 4.2 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicate August inventory on average (2012-16) decreases from July by 0.3 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio during August was 5 months of housing supply. Restated, at the August sales pace, it would take 5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months. In August 2016, the supply stood at 5.1 months. The months-of-supply figure has declined 53.6 percent from the August peak reached in 2010 (10.7 months), which is encouraging news.
Demand: August residential sales increased by 14.7 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate August sales on average (2012-16) increase from July by 5 percent. The average days on the market until a listing sold was 88 days, down 17.8 percent from the previous August.
Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during August was $128,000, which is 0.2 percent below August 2016’s $128,250. Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “For the first time in 2017, we have increased our full-year growth outlook. The upgrade reflects economic activity gaining momentum at the end of the second quarter, though we see a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the forecast,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “The list of uncertainties now extends beyond the geopolitical and legislative, as the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will require time to untangle. Historically, natural disasters that hit heavily populated areas led to substantial near-term declines in economic activity but meaningful rebounds in subsequent quarters due to rebuilding efforts. Thus, economic growth in the second half of 2017 could still average a slightly stronger pace than the first half. Unfortunately, we continue to expect home sales to be flat during the second half of the year compared to the first half due to strong home price appreciation and lean inventories.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County August Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.