Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 122 units during September, down 18.7 percent from the same month in 2016. Home sales in Morgan County during September 2016 totaled 150 units. Another resource to review is the Annual Report.
Click here for all Morgan County residential data.
Forecast: September sales were 1 unit or 0.8 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through September projected 1,083 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,145 units.
Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 674 units, a decrease of 11 percent from September 2016. Inventory was 2.1 percent above the prior month. Historical data indicates September inventory on average (2012-16) decreases from August by 1.6 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio during September was 5.5 months of housing supply. Restated, at the September sales pace, it would take 5.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months. In September 2016, the supply stood at 5 months. The months-of-supply figure has declined 62.4 percent from the September peak reached in 2010 (14.7 months), which is encouraging news.
Demand: September residential sales decreased by 8.3 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate September sales on average (2012-16) decrease from August by 8.4 percent. The average number of days on the market until a listing sold was 81 days, down 14.7 percent from the previous September.
Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during September was $135,750, which is 4 percent above September 2016’s $130,500. Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “The impacts from this season’s hurricanes on the U.S. economy were wide-ranging but should dissipate over time. These include the loss of momentum in consumer spending and residential investment, as well as a decline in September payrolls and August home sales and contract signings,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “We expect economic activity to rebound in coming months. The recovery will likely be slower for home sales and home building, however, as the labor shortage and rising material prices will likely worsen after the hurricanes, exacerbating already-tight inventory. While we expect full-year economic growth for 2017 to come in at the same rate projected in our prior forecast, we now believe that total home sales will be essentially flat this year compared with the moderate rise predicted in the prior forecast. Despite muted underlying inflation, we continue to expect the Fed to raise rates for the third time this year in December.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County September Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.