Sales: According to the Lee County Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, Lee County area residential sales totaled 136 units during September, a decrease of 1 unit or 0.7 percent from the same month in 2016. Year-to-date sales through September were slightly behind the same period in 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
Forecast: September sales were 7 units or 5.4 percent above ACRE’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through September projected 1,463 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,476 units.
Supply: The Lee County housing inventory in September was 534 units, an increase of 0.2 percent from September 2016 and a 59.4 percent decrease from the September inventory peak in 2010 (1,315 units). September inventory in Lee County decreased 3 percent from August. This direction is consistent with historical data indicating that September inventory on average (2012-16) decreases from August by 0.2 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in September was 3.9 months of housing supply. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months.
Demand: September residential sales decreased 24.4 percent from August.
Pricing: The Lee County median sales price during September was $257,348, up 11.9 percent from September 2016. The September median sales price was up 11.1 percent compared to the August median sales price. Historical data (2012-16) indicate that the September median sales price on average increases from the August price by 4.8 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month to month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns. ACRE recommends contacting a local real estate professional to discuss the latest pricing trends.
Industry perspective: “The impacts from this season’s hurricanes on the U.S. economy were wide-ranging but should dissipate over time. These include the loss of momentum in consumer spending and residential investment, as well as a decline in September payrolls and August home sales and contract signings,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “We expect economic activity to rebound in coming months. The recovery will likely be slower for home sales and home building, however, as the labor shortage and rising material prices will likely worsen after the hurricanes, exacerbating already-tight inventory. While we expect full-year economic growth for 2017 to come in at the same rate projected in our prior forecast, we now believe that total home sales will be essentially flat this year compared with the moderate rise predicted in the prior forecast. Despite muted underlying inflation, we continue to expect the Fed to raise rates for the third time this year in December.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Lee County September Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.
The Lee County Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Lee County Association of Realtors.