COLD MORNING: Temperatures early this morning were below freezing across much of north and central Alabama. We saw 20s in places like Gadsden and Fort Payne. But we warm nicely today with a strong November sun; the high this afternoon will be in the mid 60s.
Sunny weather continues tomorrow with a high in the upper 60s.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Moisture levels will rise Wednesday and clouds increase, but much of the day should be dry with a high between 67 and 70 degrees. We will mention a chance of showers Thursday as a cold front approaches, but dynamic forcing is fairly weak, and rain will be light and spotty. Where rain falls, amounts should be under one-tenth of an inch. Otherwise, Thursday will be cloudy with a high in the 60s.
Friday looks dry with a partly sunny sky; the high will be in the 62- to 65-degree range.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: For now the weather looks dry with cold nights and pleasant days. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s. Pretty close to seasonal averages.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The weather remains dry for the first few days of next week, but there is a chance we will deal with rain and storms toward the end of the week with the approach of a fairly vigorous upper trough. And we see evidence of a pattern change in 10 to 15 days as the upper trough sets up over the eastern third of the nation. This should bring down considerably colder air into the eastern half of the U.S.
We also note output from the European global model ensemble suggests we could see 6 inches of rain from about Dec. 10 to Jan. 10. There’s no skill forecasting specific events in that time frame, of course, but we sure need a wet pattern. Birmingham’s rain total for November is only 1.06 inches; the average total for the month is 4.12 inches. And today will be the ninth consecutive day with no rain.
TROPICAL SEASON WINDING DOWN: The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season ends Thursday, and things are very quiet this morning.
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