DRY PATTERN: A very dry air mass will stay in place across Alabama through the beginning of the weekend. We warmed to near 60 degrees yesterday, but today will be about 10 degrees cooler thanks to a clipper passing north of the state; today’s high will be in the 48- to 52-degree range for most places despite sunshine in full supply. Expect a breezy day as well, with a north wind of 10 to 18 mph.
Tomorrow morning will be cold as temperatures drop into the 20s.
REST OF THE WEEK: Expect mostly sunny, cool days and clear, chilly nights, with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 30s, right at seasonal averages for mid-December. Another clipper will pull down more cool air Friday; some north Alabama communities could hold in the 40s all day.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: After a sub-freezing start Saturday morning, we rise into the mid 50s Saturday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Clouds begins to increase Sunday, and we will bring in a chance of rain late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night ahead of a surface front. We should note model consistency is not good here, so confidence in the timing and amount of the rain is relatively low at this point. We are forecasting a high near 60 degrees Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: A rather benign weather pattern continues; for now global models are not showing any major rain/storm/snow event for the Deep South.
CHRISTMAS? There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven to 10 days, so it is way too early to know what to expect on Christmas Day here in Alabama. Using the analog method (taking expected atmospheric conditions and comparing them to prior events), there is some hint it could be wet here, with snow potential to the northwest.
But again, that is nothing more than an educated guess. We will have a first good look at Christmas weather around Dec. 18.
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