SUNNY, COOL WEDNESDAY: Temperatures are only in the 48- to 52-degree range across much of north and central Alabama this afternoon despite a full supply of sunshine. The sky will stay mostly fair tonight; it won’t be as cold as last night, with most communities seeing a low in the 31- to 35-degree range early tomorrow. Colder spots will see 20s again.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We will forecast a mix of sun and clouds both days; the high tomorrow will be in the mid 50s, but Friday will be colder as another clipper passes north of the state. Most north Alabama communities won’t get past the mid to upper 40s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We begin the day Saturday with sub-freezing early morning temperatures, generally between 27 and 32; then we rise into the mid 50s with a sunny sky. Clouds move in Saturday night, and rain arrives Sunday afternoon as an upper-level feature lifts northward out of Mexico. Rain will continue into Sunday night; some thunder is possible, but severe storms are not expected. Rain amounts around 1 inch are likely by Monday morning.
NEXT WEEK: We have a huge difference in model guidance; the Global Forecast System keeps rain going at times Monday and Tuesday, while the European model (ECMWF) is much more progressive with the wave and suggests these two days will be dry. For now we will lean on the Euro solution and forecast mostly dry conditions on these two days with highs in the 50s.
Another system will bring rain by the end of the week on Friday, Dec. 22, or Saturday, Dec. 23. The 12Z GFS run hints of a change to snow before ending, but this is nothing but voodoo for now. It also pushes cold air in here by Christmas, but ensemble data shows the coldest air northwest of Alabama. Bottom line: It is simply too early to know what the weather will be like on Christmas Day in our state (or anywhere else!).
Speaking of voodoo land, the GFS ensemble has about half of the members showing some snow potential during the last week of the month. Just something to watch for now.
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