Sales: According to the Baldwin County Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, Baldwin County condo sales, which include condos along the Gulf Coast, totaled 111 units during November, an 8.3 percent decrease from November 2016’s 121 units. However, year-to-date condo sales have increased 13.4 percent from 2016. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of Baldwin County’s condo sales data, click here.
Forecast: November sales were eight units below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through November projected 1,566 closed transactions. Actual sales were 1,668 units.
Supply: Baldwin County condo inventory totaled 674 units, a decrease of 16.1 percent from November 2016. The inventory was down 6.5 percent from the prior month. Historical patterns indicate that November inventory on average (2012-16) decreases 1.8 percent from October. Condo inventory during November peaked in 2007 at 2,563 units. The inventory is down 73.7 percent from that peak. During November, the condo supply stood at 6.1 months, down from 6.4 months during November 2016.
Demand: Condo sales decreased 1.8 percent from October. Seasonal buying patterns and historical data trends reflect November condo sales on average (2012-16) decrease from October by 9 percent.
Pricing: The Baldwin County condo median sales price in November was $315,000, up 1.6 percent from last November. The median sales price increased 0.6 percent from the prior month. The median sales price for November peaked in 2007 at $322,500, while bottoming out at $150,000 in 2010.
Industry perspective: “The economy and real estate markets continue to show they are resilient. Regardless of the economic metric — GDP, monthly jobs or home prices — the dashboard registers an ‘all-systems-go’ economy,” said KC Conway, director of research and corporate engagement at the Alabama Center for Real Estate. “GDP started the year off with its best Q1 reading in several years and followed it up with above 3 percent readings for Q2 and Q3. (This year) will be the first year since the financial crisis that the economy registered an annual GDP greater than 2 percent. It was just plus 1.6 percent for 2016.
“Job growth is healthy as well. The first week of December the market received solid monthly jobs reports from both ADP (which measures private industry job formation) and the BLS (the government’s monthly jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). ADP reported a healthy new 190,000 private-sector jobs for November and a monthly average of 210,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. The BLS reported November jobs at a higher-than-expected level of 228,000 jobs – and its year-to-date monthly average is 174,000. Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent, and inflation was just reported on December 13th at 1.7 percent for the “core rate” (which excludes the more volatile food and energy components) and 2.2 percent overall annualized due to higher energy prices.
“The Federal Reserve is taking note of the expanding economy and followed up its prior two rate hikes earlier in 2017 with a 0.25 percent rate increase at its December 13th meeting. Housing conditions remain conducive to growth in new supply and more transaction activity. Single-family home inventories are below demand levels across the nation, Southeast and most Alabama markets. The national rate of appreciation is running above 6 percent on the heels of 5-plus percent in 2016. This is leading builders and lenders to be more receptive to adding inventory. New housing starts and permits will likely end 2017 at or above the 1.3 million units level, split 30 percent multifamily and 70 percent single-family. The outlook heading into 2018 is the best we have seen in a decade.”
The Baldwin County Condo Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Baldwin County Association of Realtors to better serve both local and worldwide consumers interested in the beaches along Alabama’s Gulf Coast.