Sales: According to the Baldwin County Association of Realtors/Multiple Listing Service, November residential sales in Baldwin County totaled 438 units, up 9.2 percent from last November. Year-to-date sales were up 19.4 percent from the same period last year. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of Baldwin County’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: November results were one unit or 0.23 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE’s 2017 sales forecast through November projected 5,349 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 6,092 units.
Supply: The Baldwin County housing inventory in November was 2,704 units, an increase of 0.4 percent from November 2016. The area’s housing inventory has declined by 53.9 percent from the November peak in 2007 (5,869 units). There were 6.2 months of housing supply in November (with 6 months considered equilibrium) vs. 6.7 months of supply in November 2016.
Demand: Baldwin County residential sales decreased 10.8 percent from October. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 50 percent of total sales, while 24 percent were new home sales and 26 percent were condo sales.
Pricing: The Baldwin County median sales price in November was $242,700, an increase of 4.2 percent from November 2016 ($232,900). The median sales price was up 5.5 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate on average (2012-16) the November median sales price decreases 3.7 percent from October. ACRE highly recommends consulting with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “The economy and real estate markets continue to show they are resilient. Regardless of the economic metric — GDP, monthly jobs or home prices — the dashboard registers an ‘all-systems-go’ economy,” said KC Conway, director of research and corporate engagement at the Alabama Center for Real Estate. “GDP started the year off with its best Q1 reading in several years and followed it up with above 3 percent readings for Q2 and Q3. (This year) will be the first year since the financial crisis that the economy registered an annual GDP greater than 2 percent. It was just plus 1.6 percent for 2016.
“Job growth is healthy as well. The first week of December the market received solid monthly jobs reports from both ADP (which measures private industry job formation) and the BLS (the government’s monthly jobs report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). ADP reported a healthy new 190,000 private-sector jobs for November and a monthly average of 210,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. The BLS reported November jobs at a higher-than-expected level of 228,000 jobs – and its year-to-date monthly average is 174,000. Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent, and inflation was just reported on December 13th at 1.7 percent for the “core rate” (which excludes the more volatile food and energy components) and 2.2 percent overall annualized due to higher energy prices.
“The Federal Reserve is taking note of the expanding economy and followed up its prior two rate hikes earlier in 2017 with a 0.25 percent rate increase at its December 13th meeting. Housing conditions remain conducive to growth in new supply and more transaction activity. Single-family home inventories are below demand levels across the nation, Southeast and most Alabama markets. The national rate of appreciation is running above 6 percent on the heels of 5-plus percent in 2016. This is leading builders and lenders to be more receptive to adding inventory. New housing starts and permits will likely end 2017 at or above the 1.3 million units level, split 30 percent multifamily and 70 percent single-family. The outlook heading into 2018 is the best we have seen in a decade.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Baldwin County November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.