CHILLY MORNING: Temperatures are mostly in the 20s across north and central Alabama early this morning with a clear sky and light wind. Today will be a sunny, cool day with a high between 52 and 55 degrees this afternoon. Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday with a warming trend; we reach the upper 50s tomorrow and low 60s Friday.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Clouds move in Friday night, and we will need to mention periods of rain over the weekend as a surface low passes through the northern Gulf of Mexico. For now it seems like the most widespread rain will come from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning; rain amounts will vary from around one-half inch over the northern counties to more than 1 inch near the Gulf Coast. With the low passing south of here, there is no risk of severe storms, and we probably won’t hear much thunder. The high Saturday will be in the 60s, cooling into the 50s Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The weather for the first half of next week will be cool and dry, with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Both the Global Forecast System and the European global model (ECMWF) show a cold front arriving later in the week with a chance of rain, followed by much colder air. And, yes, the 00Z deterministic runs of both models show some chance of the rain changing to snow in the colder air before ending toward the end of the week.
But, before you buy milk, bread, YooHoos or Twinkies, understand most of the 51 ECMWF ensemble members, for now, show NO snow late next week.
It’s too early to call; just something to watch for now. There is high confidence much colder air rolls into the Deep South in 10 days or so.
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