ONE MORE DRY DAY: Temperatures are all over the board this morning; a reminder that “one number” sometimes doesn’t work well in a forecast on a clear, calm morning. Birmingham reports 45 degrees just before daybreak, but some places are more than 20 degrees colder. This is due to UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect, and local variations of wind and cloud cover.
We expect a partly to mostly sunny sky today with a high at or just over 60 this afternoon. Enjoy it; it will be the last day with a 60-degree high for a while. Clouds thicken tonight.
THE WEEKEND: A wave of low pressure will form in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and we will have some rain at times tomorrow as moisture levels continue to rise. But it won’t rain all day; the most widespread rain should come tomorrow night into Sunday morning as the low passes to the south. Then, rain should end from west to east Sunday afternoon. Rain amounts of around one-half inch are expected for the northern half of the state, with heavier totals down south near the coast. There’s no risk of severe weather, and probably no thunder in a stable air mass. Highs tomorrow and Sunday will be in the 57- to 60-degree range.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week will be dry and colder. The coldest day will be Tuesday, with a high only in the mid 40s; early morning temperatures will drop down into the low and mid 20s early Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Some of the normally colder spots could reach the upper teens.
Clouds return Thursday ahead of a cold front, and some rain is likely by Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Rain should end from west to east next Friday as colder air rolls into the state. We can’t totally rule out a few flurries Friday morning as the cold air enters the state, but global model data for now shows no sign of any impact if by chance that happens.
The following weekend, Feb. 3-4, looks cold and dry.
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