James Spann: Warmer days ahead for Alabama, with a few showers

OVERCAST, COLD AFTERNOON: Most guidance from computer models suggested we would reach the 50s today across north and central Alabama, but that won’t happen as thick clouds and cold air advection combine to keep temperatures in the 40s. A cluster of showers was moving into the Birmingham metro around 3 p.m.

Clouds stay in place overnight, and temperatures will pretty much hold where they are now through the night. Any overnight showers will be pretty isolated.

TOMORROW: The sky will remain mostly cloudy; we should rise into the low 60s as the shallow layer of cold air begins to lift out. A shower or two is possible, but not likely.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Generally overcast conditions will continue on these three days with mild afternoons, and we will need to mention a chance of showers each day for the northern half of Alabama. The rain won’t be too heavy, but be ready for an occasional shower. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the 60s, although a few spots could bump up into the low 70s, especially south of I-20.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Unfortunately the new Global Forecast System run suggests a cold front will stall out over north Alabama Saturday (earlier runs suggested it could make it down to the coast with drier air for us). This means we will have to continue a cloudy forecast for Saturday and Sunday with a risk of showers both days. The rain won’t be as heavy or widespread as what we dealt with this past weekend, but no doubt it should rain at times. Saturday will be a tad cooler, with highs in the 50s, but we return to 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The upper air pattern keeps a long-wave upper trough over the western half of the nation next week, keeping Alabama in an unsettled, southwest flow aloft. This means the generally cloudy weather will continue through much of the week, with some risk of showers just about daily. Highs should be well up in the 60s.

No sign of any extended Arctic air blasts, snow or ice for Alabama through the rest of February.

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