RAIN FOR MOST: Clouds cover nearly all of Alabama this morning as we watch the slow but steady progress of a cold front across the Southeast. We’re using the term cold front, but there really is not much temperature contrast, with basically the line of storms and a wind shift to mark the front. While a few storms may be strong, I don’t expect to see any widespread severe storms, but nearly everyone should see some rain today. Highs today should be in the middle and upper 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The upper trough moves across the Mississippi River this afternoon and establishes a trough over the eastern third of the country Sunday and Monday. A weak short wave could bring another brief shot at some showers Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Highs Sunday through Tuesday should be in the lower 80s, maybe upper 70s on Sunday.
The middle of the week looks fairly quiet and somewhat uneventful for weather, with highs in the 81 to 84 range. Thursday we are watching a short wave move across the Great Lakes region that will bring another front into the Tennessee River Valley. Weak ridging over the Lower Mississippi River Valley along with the fast motion of the short wave should keep the front from pushing into the Southeast, with small chances for showers in central Alabama on Thursday. Highs don’t change much as they remain in the lower 80s.
The weak ridge over the Southeast grows a trifle stronger on Friday and Saturday, and this should help to limit showers and see highs climb into the middle 80s. The Global Forecast System and the Euro model continue to show different solutions for next weekend. The European is much drier than the GFS, though the GFS is not very wet, with isolated showers mainly over the Tennessee River Valley.
LONG TERM: Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is projecting a huge change in the upper-level pattern, with a huge ridge moving over the eastern half of the country May 16-20. If this pattern and the strength of the upper ridge verify, we are looking at some very, very hot temperatures for the middle of May, potentially the first 90-degree-plus readings for central Alabama. We can only hope that this changes in the next model runs.
BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
WEATHERBRAINS: You can listen to our weekly 90-minute netcast any time on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including meteorologists at ABC 33/40.
Have a great day, and be aware of the showers! Godspeed.
For more weather news and information from James Spann, Brian Peters and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.