MUGGY MAY DAYS: A broad disturbance in the northeast Gulf of Mexico will keep a humid, tropical air mass over Alabama today and tomorrow; we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds both days with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the showers will come from about 2 p.m. until 11 p.m., but in this kind of air mass we can’t rule out the chance of a late-night or morning shower (we have a few on radar this morning). Highs will be mostly in the mid 80s; the average high for Birmingham on May 16 is 82.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Models have trended toward lower precipitable water values (drier) on these two days. There will be sufficient moisture for a few showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours, but it now looks like they will be fairly widely scattered. Otherwise, both days will be partly sunny with a high in the 87- to 90-degree range.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Moisture levels tick up again, and once again we will forecast scattered showers and thunderstorms on these two days, generally between 1 p.m. and 10 p.m. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s.
BIG EVENTS: Many outdoor events are coming up across Alabama through the weekend, including high school graduations, the Regions Tradition at Greystone, the Hangout Music Festival at Gulf Shores and Do Dah Day in Birmingham. These points apply to all of these events and all venues in Alabama:
- This is not a situation where rain will go on for hours; instead, showers and thunderstorms will be somewhat scattered.
- Showers and storms will be rather random, meaning there is no way of knowing exactly when and where they will pop up in advance, and we can’t give specific start/stop times for any one location.
- Rain distribution will be very uneven. Some places on any given day could see well over 1 inch of rain; other spots will see nothing (much like yesterday).
- Most of the showers will come during the peak of the daytime heating process, between 1 p.m. and 11 p.m. But we can’t rule out a late-night or morning shower.
- Organized severe storms are not expected, but heavier thunderstorms will produce very heavy rain and will also have potential for small hail.
- When thunder roars, GO INDOORS. When you hear thunder, get into a car, truck, house, church, etc. Don’t risk it.
We are lapsing into a summer pattern, when “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” are mentioned almost daily.
TUESDAY FLOODING: One cluster of back-building storms in the western part of the Birmingham metro dropped more than 4 inches of rain (based on radar estimates) around Fairfield and Midfield. Roads were closed because of flooding there. Other rain reports yesterday from our Skywatchers:
- Arley — 2.17 inches
- Bessemer — 1.26
- Locust Fork — 1.12
- Cottondale — 0.88
- Concord — 0.55
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