BLANKET OF MOIST AIR HANGS OVER ALABAMA: Alabama’s weather won’t change much today; we are forecasting a mix of sun and clouds, and with a broad upper trough over the region, scattered to numerous showers and storms will fire up again this afternoon and tonight. In fact, a few storms are in progress early this morning over northwest Alabama; one storm over Winfield is producing rain rates of 6 inches per hour, and some localized flooding is possible there.
Other storms that form later today will also be slow movers and will drop heavy amounts of rain. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will come from about 1 p.m. until midnight, and the high today will be in the 82- to 85-degree range, pretty close to seasonal averages.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The overall pattern stays the same — a broad upper trough, moist air, and scattered showers and storms daily with a mix of sun and clouds. The American global model (the Global Forecast System) hints that shower coverage could be higher tomorrow, then slightly lower Saturday. But these are subtle changes; the big picture stays the same.
There are many outdoor events going on this weekend, including the Regions Tradition at Greystone, the Hangout Music Festival at Gulf Shores and Do Dah Day in Birmingham. This is what you need to know about the weather:
- Some rain is possible each day, but the rain won’t be continuous, and we won’t have an all-day washout.
- The best chance of showers and storms will come during the afternoons and evenings, generally between 1 and 11 p.m. But with this kind of air mass you can’t totally rule out a late-night or morning shower.
- The thunderstorms that form will tend to be rather random and scattered; there’s no way of knowing exactly when and where they form far in advance. Just be ready for a rain/lightning delay.
- Organized severe thunderstorm activity is not expected, but a few “pulse” type severe storms are possible. The main threat from these will come from gusty straight-line winds.
- The sun will be out at times, and highs will be in the 80s for most locations.
- If you hear thunder, get inside (or in a vehicle). We had a lightning fatality in Florida yesterday.
NEXT WEEK: Days will be warm and humid with a mix of sun and clouds, and the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue most of the week. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s most days.
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