SUN AND STORMS: Again this morning a moist, unstable air mass covers Alabama, and with a weak upper impulse/circulation over the northern Gulf (not any kind of tropical system), we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our state later today and tonight; the chance of any one spot getting wet is in the 50 to 60 percent range. Otherwise, we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds today with a high between 86 and 91 degrees for most locations.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Showers and storms should be fewer in number tomorrow as the impulse over the northern Gulf moves westward, and we get into a zone of subsidence (sinking air). A few widely scattered storms are possible tomorrow afternoon; otherwise it will be a partly sunny day with a high in the low 90s. Then, on Independence Day, we expect very routine summer weather — hot and humid, with a mix of sun and clouds, and scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Most of the storms will come from 1 until 11 p.m., and the chance of any one spot getting wet is around 40 percent. The high Wednesday will be close to 90 degrees.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: There’s no real reason to depart from the standard summer formula. Expect partly sunny days with the risk of random, scattered showers and storms each day during the afternoon and evening. Hot and muggy conditions will continue, with highs mostly from 88 to 92. There’s no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where the daily storms pop up.
NEXT WEEK: The storm track stays up around the Canadian border, and with a ridge aloft (but not especially strong for summer), the persistence forecast stays in place. We will maintain the risk of a few scattered storms every afternoon and evening with partly sunny days. Highs should be not too far from 90.
TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin this week; dry air and cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures continue across the deep tropics.
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