Click here to view or print the entire September report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the Greater Alabama Multiple Listing Service, the Birmingham metro area* residential sales totaled 1,206 units in September, 40 units or 3.4 percent above the same time last year. Residential sales also increased by 2.2 percent from the prior month in September. Two more resources to review market: Quarterly Report and Annual Report

Forecast: September sales were 5.1 percent or 59 units above our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 10,358 closed transactions while the actual sales were 10,471 units, a cumulative variance of 1 percent.

Birmingham Metro Area residential sales improved 5 percent from last May. Inventory has declined 46 percent from the May 2007 peak. (Infograph courtesy of ACRE/All rights reserved)

Supply: The Birmingham area housing inventory in September was 7,520 units, an increase of 6 percent from September 2014 but down 44.5 percent from the month of September peak in 2007 (13,560 units). September inventory in the Birmingham metro area also decreased 3.1 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with seasonal patterns and historical data indicating that September inventory on average (2010-14) decreases from the month of August by 2.1 percent.

According to the Greater Alabama MLS, the Birmingham metro area market, there was 6.2 months of housing supply in September , nearly the same as September 2014 (6.1). This realignment of inventory is even more impressive when compared to its September peak of 14.7 months in 2010 and the 5-year average of 9.5 months from 2010-2014. The “months of housing supply” is a simple calculation – homes listed (supply) divided by homes sold (demand). In general, approximately 6 months is considered the point of equilibrium during the month of September (NSA). At the current sales pace, Birmingham is increasingly favoring sellers.

Demand: September residential sales rose 2.2 percent from the prior month. This direction contrasts with historical data indicating that September sales, on average (2010-14), decreases from the month of August by 9.9 percent.

Existing single family home sales accounted for 83 percent (down from 84 percent  in September 2014) of total sales while 14 percent (up from 13 percent in September 2014) were new home sales and 3 percent (same as September 2014) were condo buyers.

Pricing: The median sales price in September was $170,000, an decrease of 2.9 percent from last September ($175,000). The September median sales price also decreased 8.1 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data (2010-14) indicating that the September median sales price on average decreases from the month of August by 0.5 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month-to-month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns. Consulting with a local real estate professional who has access to pricing data at the neighborhood level is recommended.

Industry Perspective: “Our forecast for the year is largely unchanged despite recent market volatility. Fundamentals are positive, suggesting potential for some improvement in the fourth quarter,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While core personal consumption expenditures experienced their weakest gain in more than four years in July, real consumer spending rebounded during the month and August auto sales were stronger than they have been in a decade. Consumers may get an added boost during the year from subdued inflation given the stronger dollar and low oil prices. Overall, we anticipate economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2015, up slightly from 2.1 percent in the prior forecast. Consumer and government spending as well as nonresidential and residential investment are expected to contribute to growth while net exports and inventory investment will likely pose headwinds.” For full report click HERE.

The average sales price in Birmingham was 3 percent lower than September 2014 ($215,830).

The average number of days on the market was 74 days in September, a decrease of 8.6 percent from last September.

Year-to-date sales in Birmingham in September rose 7.4 percent over last year.

Supply is on the rise in September in Birmingham, rising 6 percent from last year.

Median sales prices fall from last year (2.9 percent) and August (8 percent) in September in Birmingham.

Months of supply is near equilibrium in Birmingham for September at 6.2 MOS.

Birmingham residential sales are 23.4 percent higher than the 2005 peak of 1,574 units.

Sales in Birmingham have been steadily climbing since the trough (723) in 2010.

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Bryan Davis is the research/media coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu.

The Birmingham Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Greater Alabama MLS and the Birmingham Association of REALTORS to better serve Birmingham metro area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions, and ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.

– See September 2015 reports for Tuscaloosa and Dothan.