Click here to view or print the entire August report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the Multiple Listing Service of the Shoals Area Association of Realtors, Shoals Area* residential sales totaled 148 units in September, an increase in sales growth of 3 percent or 4 units above the same period last year. Year-to-date sales through September are also up 16.4 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review market: Quarterly Report and Annual Report

Forecast: September sales landed 18 units above our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 1,158 closed transactions while the actual sales were 1,254 units, a rise of 8.2 percent. So far this year, actual sales have met or outperformed ACRE’s monthly forecasts.

Shoals Area residential sales increased 2.8 percent from last September. Housing inventory has been favorably reduced by 14 percent from August 2010 peak. Infograph courtesy of ACRE. All rights reserved.

Supply: Shoals Area housing inventory totaled 1,107 units, a decrease of 9.1 percent from September 2014. Inventory also decreased 0.8 percent from the prior month. Historical data suggests housing inventory decreases generally by 0.6 percent from August to September. Inventory has favorably declined 14.1 percent from the month of September peak of 1,288 reached in 2010.

The inventory-to-sales ratio in September was 7.5 months of housing supply, a favorable decrease of 11.6 percent from last September. Restated, at the September sales pace, it would take 7.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6.0+/- months (not seasonally adjusted) during August.

Demand: September sales were exactly the same as the prior month. Historical data from 2010-14.  indicates typical sales decrease 5.3 percent from August to September.

Pricing: The Shoals Area median sales price in September was $117,216, an increase of 2.8 percent from September 2014. The median sales price also dipped 7 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data indicating that the September median sales price on average (2010-14) decreases by 5.5 percent from the month of August. Pricing can fluctuate from month-to-month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns so a broader lens as to pricing trends is appropriate and we recommend contacting a local real estate professional for additional market pricing information.

Industry Perspective:  “Our forecast for the year is largely unchanged despite recent market volatility. Fundamentals are positive, suggesting potential for some improvement in the fourth quarter,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While core personal consumption expenditures experienced their weakest gain in more than four years in July, real consumer spending rebounded during the month and August auto sales were stronger than they have been in a decade. Consumers may get an added boost during the year from subdued inflation given the stronger dollar and low oil prices. Overall, we anticipate economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2015, up slightly from 2.1 percent in the prior forecast. Consumer and government spending as well as nonresidential and residential investment are expected to contribute to growth while net exports and inventory investment will likely pose headwinds.” For full report click HERE.

Shoals average sales price rose slightly over last year.

Average days on the market continued to decline in Shoals in September.

Total inventory continues downward trajectory in Shoals in September.

Median home prices rose slightly over last year in Shoals during September.

Months of supply down from 13.0 in 2010 to 7.5 last month.

A capture of sales to inventory ratio in Shoals during September.

Residential sales rose slightly from last September in Shoals.

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Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu.

The Shoals Area Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Shoals Area Association of Realtors to better serve its area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current available data. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions. ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market.
The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.