Sales: According to the Wiregrass Multiple Listing Service, the Wiregrass area residential sales totaled 88 units in September, an increase in sales growth of 31.3 percent or 21 units above the same period last year. This contrasts with historical data that indicates residential sales typically decline 17.5 percent from the month of August. September’s sales were 69 percent higher than the 2012 low of 52 units for Wiregrass. Two more resources to review market: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: September sales were 16 units above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 715 closed transactions while the actual sales were 675 units, a dip of 5.59 percent.
Supply: Wiregrass area housing inventory totaled 874 units, a decrease of 6 percent from September 2014. Inventory was down 4.5 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data that indicates September inventory on average (2010-14) decreases from the month of August by 1.1 percent. Inventory levels remain above normal but progress is being made. The inventory-to-sales ratio in September of 9.9 months of housing supply is down 28.4 percent from the same period last year. Restated, at the September sales pace, it would take 9.9 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6.0 months during the month of September so this indicates the continued presence of a buyer’s market.
Demand: September residential sales were 11.4 percent above the prior month. This direction contrasts with seasonal and local historical data that indicates the September sales on average (2010-14) decrease from the month of August by 17.5 percent. The average Days on Market (DOM) until listing sold was 164 days, 15 percent slower than last September 2014 (193 days).
Pricing: The Wiregrass Area median sales price in September was $105,500, a decrease of 12.1 percent from September 2014 ($120,000) and 18.8 percent below last month ($130,000). This direction is consistent with historical seasonal data (2010-14) that reflects the September median sales price on average decreases from the month of August by 12.9 percent. It should be noted that the differing sample size (# of residential sales of the comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. We highly recommend consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss prices as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry Perspective: “Our forecast for the year is largely unchanged despite recent market volatility. Fundamentals are positive, suggesting potential for some improvement in the fourth quarter,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “While core personal consumption expenditures experienced their weakest gain in more than four years in July, real consumer spending rebounded during the month and August auto sales were stronger than they have been in a decade. Consumers may get an added boost during the year from subdued inflation given the stronger dollar and low oil prices. Overall, we anticipate economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2015, up slightly from 2.1 percent in the prior forecast. Consumer and government spending as well as nonresidential and residential investment are expected to contribute to growth while net exports and inventory investment will likely pose headwinds.” For full report click HERE.
Bryan Davis is the research/media coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at [email protected]
The Wiregrass Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Wiregrass Board of Realtors to better serve Wiregrass area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions. ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market.