Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Marshall County sales were 17.2 percent above October 2014. Year-to-date sales through October were up as well by 9 percent or 56 units from 2014. This represents the best month of October in terms of closed sales for Marshall County since 2007, the last time home sales eclipsed 68 units during the month. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: October sales were seven units or 11.4 percent above our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast through October projected 667 closed transactions while the actual sales were 682 units.
Supply: Marshall County housing inventory totaled 599 units, a decrease of 13 percent from October 2014. October inventory also decreased 6.1 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data that indicates October inventory on average (2010-14) decreases from the month of September by 2.7 percent. Inventory levels remain elevated. The inventory-to-sales ratio in October remains higher than desired at 8.8 months of housing supply. Restated, at the October sales pace, it would take 8.8 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. This is 26 percent lower than last October ratio of 11.8 but 24 percent above September’s 7.1 months of supply. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6.0 months during the month of October so this represents an area where continued improvement would be welcome news for market participants.
Demand: Marshall County residential sales in October residential sales decreased 24 percent from the prior month. This direction contrasts with historical data indicating that October sales on average (2010-14) increase from the month of September by 9.7 percent.
Pricing: The Marshall County area median sales price in October was $104,500, a decrease of 5 percent from last October ($110,000). The October median sales price was also 19 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicates that the October median sales price on average (2010-14) increases from the month of September by 1.3 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month-to-month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns so a broader lens as to pricing trends is appropriate and we recommend contacting a local real estate professional for additional market pricing information.
Industry Perspective: “Despite recent headwinds, which likely will slow economic growth compared to the first half of 2015, we see positive trends for consumer spending and housing heading into the fourth quarter,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Strong home price gains should help drive an increase in household net worth again in the third quarter, and, combined with low gasoline prices and mortgage rates, should support strong consumer spending throughout the rest of the year.” To read the full report, click here.
Bryan Davis is the research/media coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at [email protected] The Marshall County Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Marshall County Board of Realtors to better serve its area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current available data. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions. ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.