Published On: 12.19.15 | 

By: Bryan Davis

Athens area November home sales up 7 percent over last year

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Athens home sales were up 7 percent in November. (file)

Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Athens/Limestone County residential sales totaled 87 units during November, an increase of 7.4 percent or six units above the same period last year. November sales peaked out at 94 during 2009 before dropping below 60 the following year. Sales have increased favorably since 2012. Year-to-date sales through November were up 21.8 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report

Forecast: November sales were 10 percent or 12 units above our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 856 closed transactions while the actual sales were 1,066 units, a rise of 25 percent.

Sales in Athens during November rose 7.4 percent over last year.

Sales in Athens during November rose 7.4 percent over last year.

Supply: Athens/Limestone County housing inventory totaled 716 units, a decrease of 15.5 percent from November 2014. New home inventory is down by seven units year-over-year, while existing home sales dipped by 89 units. November inventory was 5 percent below the prior month. This direction contrasts with historical data indicating that November inventory on average (2010-14) increases from the month of October by 5.7 percent.

The inventory-to-sales ratio in November was 8.2 months of housing supply. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 8.2 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. This is a decrease (favorable direction) of 21.3 percent from 10.5 months of supply in November 2014. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) during the month of November is considered to be approximately 6.0 months.

Demand: November residential sales were 2.2 percent below the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data associated with November sales, which indicates a typical dip of 5 percent from October. Existing single family home sales accounted for 77 percent (up from 68 percent in November 2014) of total sales and new homes sales accounted for 23 percent (down from 32 percent in November 2014).

Pricing: The Athens/Limestone County area median sales price in November was $134,000, a decrease of 12.6 percent from last November. It was also a 13.2 percent decrease from the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data (2010-14) reflecting that the November median sales price on average decreases from the month of October by 3 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month-to-month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns so a broader lens as it pertains to pricing trends is appropriate. We recommend consulting a local real estate professional.

Industry Perspective: “Despite mixed housing and mortgage market data, our forecast for housing activity is little changed over the past several months,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist  Dave Duncan. “The supply of existing homes remains lean amid slowing new single-family construction, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. While this helps boost home equity, it hurts affordability, especially for potential first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, we expect mortgage rates to rise only gradually through next year, and an improving income trend should help support affordability. We foresee total home sales improving further in 2016, albeit at less than half of the 8.0 percent increase expected this year.” For full report click here.

Bryan Davis is the research/media coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu.

The Athens/Limestone County Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Athens/Limestone County Association of Realtors to better serve North Alabama consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current available data. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions. ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.