November home sales in Morgan County up 20 percent over last year

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Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 83 units during November, an increase of 20 percent or 14 units above the same period last year. Year-to-date sales through November were 23.4 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review market: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: November sales were eight units or 10.6 percent above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 1,039 closed transactions while the actual sales were 1,282 units, a rise of 23 percent.

Morgan County home sales were up 14 units or 20.3 percent from last year during November.
Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 776 units, a decrease of 18 percent from November 2014. Inventory was also 5 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicates November inventory on average (2010-14) decreases from the month of October by 7.3 percent. The inventory-to-sales ratio during November was 9.3 months of housing supply. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months during the month of November. Last November, the months of supply stood at 13.7 months, so the 32 percent decrease points toward a market favoring sellers. The months of supply has now declined 39 percent from the month of November peak (15.2 months) reached in 2010 which is encouraging news.
Demand: November residential sales were 26.5 percent below the prior month. This is consistent with historical data, which indicates November sales on average (2010-14) decrease from the month of October by 24.3 percent. The average Days on Market (DOM) until a listing sold was 111 days,up 6.7 percent from last November.
Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during November was $125,000, which is 6.7 percent below November 2014’s $134,000 but 7.8 percent ($116,000) above the month prior. This contrasts with historical data (2010-14) which indicates the median sales price decreases 5.5 percent from October. It should also be noted that the differing sample size (# of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. We highly recommend consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry Perspective: “Despite mixed housing and mortgage market data, our forecast for housing activity is little changed over the past several months,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Dave Duncan. “The supply of existing homes remains lean amid slowing new single-family construction, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. While this helps boost home equity, it hurts affordability, especially for potential first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, we expect mortgage rates to rise only gradually through next year, and an improving income trend should help support affordability. We foresee total home sales improving further in 2016, albeit at less than half of the 8 percent increase expected this year.” For full report click here.
Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu. The Morgan County Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Morgan County Association of Realtors to better serve area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within an area including subdivisions, and ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Morgan County Association of Realtors (MCAOR) promotes educates and supports its members in serving the public while adhering to the RealtorCode of Ethics. In partnership withe Alabama Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors, MCAOR to expand opportunities for real property ownership and to preserve private property rights. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.