Gadsden November year-to-date sales up 19 percent from last year
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Sales: According to the Valley Multiple Listing Service, Gadsden area residential sales totaled 48 units in November, which is unchanged from the same period a year earlier. Sales bottomed out during November 2008 at 34 units but have held steady between 45 and 55 units since that year. Year-to-date sales through November were up 19 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: November sales were one unit or 2 percent below our monthly forecast. Alabama Center for Real Estate’s (ACRE) year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 695 closed transactions while the actual sales were 755 units, a rise of 8.6 percent.
Supply: Gadsden area housing inventory totaled 752 units, a new peak for inventory for November.The November inventory declined 2 percent from the prior month. This direction is right on target with historical data that indicate November inventory on average (2010-14) decreases from October by 2.4 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in November remains higher than desired at 15.7 months of housing supply. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 15.7 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be about 6 months during November so this represents an area where continued improvement would be welcome news. The encouraging news is that the months of supply have dropped 29 percent from the November peak of 22.1 months of supply reached in 2008.
Demand: November residential sales were 31.4 percent or 22 units below the prior month. This direction is consistent with seasonal patterns and historical data indicating that November sales on average (2010-14) decrease from October by 5.5 percent.
Pricing: The Gadsden area median sales price in November was $92,000, a decrease of 3.7 percent from last November ($95,500). The median sales price also decreased 19 percent when compared to the prior month. This direction contrasts with historical data (2010-14) indicating that the November median sales price typically increases from October by 6 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month to month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns so a broader lens as to pricing trends is appropriate and we recommend contacting a local real estate professional for additional market pricing information.
Industry Perspective: “Despite mixed housing and mortgage market data, our forecast for housing activity is little changed over the past several months,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Dave Duncan. “The supply of existing homes remains lean amid slowing new single-family construction, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. While this helps boost home equity, it hurts affordability, especially for potential first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, we expect mortgage rates to rise only gradually through next year, and an improving income trend should help support affordability. We foresee total home sales improving further in 2016, albeit at less than half of the 8.0 percent increase expected this year.” For full report click here.
Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu. The Gadsden Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Etowah-Cherokee County Association of Realtors to better serve its area consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions, and ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.