November home sales in Lee County up 29 percent over last year
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Sales: According the Lee County Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, Lee County area residential sales totaled 89 units during November, an increase in sales of 29 percent or 20 units above the same period last year. This represented a new sales peak for the month of November and the best November since 87 units were sold in 2007. Year-to-date sales through November were up 20 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report
Forecast: November sales were 11 units or 14 percent above our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 1,283 closed transactions while the actual sales were 1,531 units, a rise of 19.3 percent.
Supply: The Lee County housing inventory in November was 579 units, a decrease of 25 percent from November 2014 and a 57 percent decrease from the month of November inventory peak in 2010 (1,347 units). November inventory in Lee County also decreased 11 percent from the prior month. This direction is consistent but higher compared with historical data indicating that November inventory on average (2010-14) decreases from the month of October by 2 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in November was 6.5 months of housing supply. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 6.5 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months (non-seasonally adjusted) during the month of November. Lee County was one of Alabama’s most balanced markets during November, especially compared to last November’s 11.2 months of supply.
Demand: November residential sales decreased 20.5 percent from the prior month. This direction contrasts with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that November sales on average (2010-14) increase by 33 percent from the month of October. Existing single family home sales account for 52 percent (down from 59 percent during November 2014) of total sales while 28 percent (up from 26 percent during November 2014) were new home sales and 20 percent (up from 15 percent during November 2014) were condo buyers.
Pricing: The Lee County median sales price during November was $170,000, a 14 percent increase from last November. The November median sales price decreased 13.6 percent compared to the prior month. This direction is consistent with historical data (2010-14) indicating that the November median sales price on average decreases from the month of October by 4.6 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month-to-month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns so a broader lens as to pricing trends is appropriate and we recommend contacting a local real estate professional to discuss the latest pricing trends with experts with boots on the ground.
Industry Perspective: “Despite mixed housing and mortgage market data, our forecast for housing activity is little changed over the past several months,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Dave Duncan. “The supply of existing homes remains lean amid slowing new single-family construction, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. While this helps boost home equity, it hurts affordability, especially for potential first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, we expect mortgage rates to rise only gradually through next year, and an improving income trend should help support affordability. We foresee total home sales improving further in 2016, albeit at less than half of the 8 percent increase expected this year.” For full report click here.
Bryan Davis is the research/media Coordinator for the Alabama Center for Real Estate housed within the Culverhouse College of Commerce at the University of Alabama. He can be reached at 205-348-5416 or at bkdavis@culverhouse.ua.edu. The Lee County Residential Monthly Report is work product developed in conjunction with the Lee County Association of Realtors to better serve Opelika/Auburn consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current available data. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions. ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach.