Tuscaloosa November year-to-date home sales up 9 percent over last year
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Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa area residential sales totaled 128 units during November, which is unchanged from the same period last year. Year-to-date sales through November were up 9.4 percent from 2014. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here.
Forecast: November results were 10 units or 7.5 percent below our monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 1,944 closed transactions while the actual sales were right on the mark at 1,934 units.
Home sales during November in Tuscaloosa were unchanged at 128 units last month.
Supply: Tuscaloosa November housing inventory totaled 1,202 units, a decrease of 12.6 percent from November 2014. October inventory dipped 5 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicates that November inventory on average (2010-’14) decreases from the month of October by 2.4 percent. Inventory has now declined 37.8 percent from the month of November peak (1,934 units) reached in 2007.
Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 12.6 percent year-over-year during November to 9.4 months. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during month of November. The encouraging news remains that the inventory-to-sales ratio has now 60 percent from the month of November peak (23.6 months) reached in 2010.
Demand: November residential sales were 19 percent below the prior month. The decrease is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that November sales on average (2010-’14) decrease from the month of October by 12.8 percent. Existing single family home sales accounted for 83 percent (down from 86 percent in November 2014) of total sales while 8 percent (down from 10 percent during November 2014) were new home sales and 9 percent (up from 4 percent in November 2014) were condo buyers.
Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in November was $151,250, representing an increase of 6.3 percent when compared to November 2014. The median sales price rose 3.6 percent from October’s price. This month-over-month price direction contrasts with historical data indicating that the November median sales price on average (2010-’14) decreases from the month of October by 0.9 percent. It should also be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility including pricing. The Center highly recommends consulting with a real estate professional to discuss pricing as it can and will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry Perspective: “Since the spring, Tuscaloosa has seen a decline in both sales numbers and inventory. I expect this trend will reverse in the 1st quarter of 2016, and Tuscaloosa will see a gradual increase in sales and inventory .”
The Tuscaloosa Residential Monthly Report work product developed in conjunction with the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors to better serve West Alabama consumers. The ACRE monthly report is provided to illustrate the “general” market direction & trends when comparing prior periods with the most current residential data available. Real estate is local and statistics will fluctuate between areas within a city including subdivisions, and ACRE recommends that you consult a local real estate professional for “specific” advice associated with your market. The Alabama Center for Real Estate‘s core purpose is to advance the real estate industry in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. Join the Center mailing list here.
