James Spann: Dry today, strong storms tomorrow from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

AT DAYBREAK: We begin the day with mostly dry conditions over the northern half of the state; we do note a few lingering showers over East-Central Alabama, near a surface front that bisects the region.

We expect a dry day for North/Central Alabama today, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 80s. Any showers will be confined primarily to the southern counties of the state, and even there they should be widely scattered.

ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW: A wave of low pressure will form on the front tomorrow, and will bring rain and thunderstorms to the state. SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for the southern quarter of Alabama, with a “marginal risk” up to the Tennessee border.

The primary window for rain will come from 8:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m., although some rain is possible earlier in the morning. And, the greatest risk of strong to severe storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.

We project rain amounts near one inch for most communities, not enough for flooding issues.

In terms of the severe weather risk, there is no tight surface low, and wind fields are not especially strong. However, high resolution model data suggests surface based CAPE values could rise to near 3,000 j/kg over the southern two-thirds of the state by afternoon, and storm relative helicity values would be close to 200 m2/s2.

But, there is some uncertainty due to the potential of an MCS (mesoscale convective system) near the Gulf Coast, and also the chance that morning rain could leave the atmosphere more stable than expected.

The bottom line is that the main threat will come from hail and gusty straight line winds tomorrow afternoon. The tornado threat is low, but not zero.

THE WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and Sunday will be another dry with a good supply of sunshine. The high will be at or just over 80 on both days, and humidity values will be lower.

Dry weather continues on Monday; then for the rest of next week the weather looks pretty typical for late May, with warm, humid days and some risk of scattered, mostly afternoon showers or thunderstorms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

REGIONS TRADITION: The Regions Tradition continues at the Greystone Golf and Country Club through Sunday… Partly sunny today with a high near 82 degrees. Rain and storms are likely tomorrow; it won’t rain all day, but there could be a few strong storms involved; temperatures won’t get out of the 70s due to clouds and rain. Then, expect a beautiful weekend with ample sunshine Saturday and Sunday along with highs in the low 80s. Get more information about the tournament here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Coming up at the Hoover Met May 24-29… the weather looks warm and dry Tuesday, then we will mention the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” for the rest of the week and the weekend, pretty typical weather for late May in Alabama. There could be a rain delay or two along the way, but at the moment we don’t see anything to suggest especially widespread rain. Highs will be in the 80s. Get information about the big event here.

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