In the world of weather, the young boy is giving way to the young girl, which could result in a rough-and-tumble spring for Alabama in 2017.

A May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the El Niño effect of the warming of the Pacific Ocean is likely to fade this summer, making way for La Niña this fall and winter, in which the Pacific cools.

That raises the eyebrows of Mark Prater, chief meteorologist at WIAT 42, who says the historic tornado outbreaks of April 27, 2011; April 1974; and 1932 all were on the back end of a La Niña season.

When the oceanic phenomena known as El Niño and La Niña happen in the same year, Alabama is prone to more severe weather. Conditions are pointing toward that possibility this year. (iStock)

“If we judge by history – and this trend isn’t exact – but it certainly grabs my attention each time I see we’re possibly headed into a La Niña event,” Prater said. “If, and I emphasize, if, this is a big contributing factor to severe weather like the historical data shows over the past 100 years, 2017 could be a very active severe weather season for Alabama and Dixie Alley. That could easily begin in the winter for Alabama as well.”

In fact, Prater said the “smoking gun” for severe weather in Alabama the past century is when both El Niño and La Niña took place the same year.

The most recent super outbreak – the April 27 event five years ago – saw 122 tornadoes kill 313 people in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia.

Since then, there has been a five-year stretch of “relatively calm” tornadic activity, Prater said.

“But everything on this planet runs in cycles when it comes to weather,” he said. “We will have very active severe weather years again.”

Some national media reports expressed alarm El Niño is morphing into La Niña, but Prater isn’t surprised.

It’s too early to tell for certain, but weather experts are keeping a close eye on what happens in the Pacific Ocean this fall and winter, which can have a big impact on the severity of Alabama’s spring weather. (iStock)

“It’s not uncommon to have a La Niña begin on the back side of an El Niño,” Prater explained. “It’s not a guarantee, but it has been the pattern many other historical occasions. That’s why NOAA believes, as we do, there could be a La Niña pattern taking shape in the fall of this year.”

In simple terms, a La Niña event, in which the Pacific cools, keeps the polar jet stream farther north. That protects Alabama and the South from bitterly cold air, providing a drier, milder fall and winter. Warmer temperatures in the spring make the atmosphere more unstable and prone to severe weather.

“El Niño is weakening,” NOAA said in its mid-May summary. “La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75 percent chance of a La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.”