James Spann: Hot day for Alabama, with only isolated storms

HOT SUMMER WEATHER: The upper ridge will strengthen across Alabama today, meaning showers and storms will be fewer in number, and heat levels are headed higher. With a partly to mostly sunny sky, we expect highs in the mid 90s today and tomorrow, with potential for upper 90s in spots. The chance of any one spot seeing a shower or storm is only around 20 percent today, and 10 percent tomorrow.

We do note a rather impressive MCS (mesoscale convective system) north of here this morning over Tennessee producing flash flooding around Nashville; the trajectory of those storms should keep them north of our state, although a few showers have formed on the outflow boundary over North Alabama early this morning.

THE WEEKEND: The upper ridge slowly weakens, opening the door for an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms. Odds of one spot getting a shower Saturday will be about one in three, with chances going even higher Sunday. But this is summer, and it won’t rain everywhere. I wouldn’t call it a “rainy weekend,” but if you have something planned outdoors, just be ready for a few rain delays. The high Saturday will be in the 92- to 95-degree range, but closer to 90 Sunday, with a mix of sun and clouds both days.

NEXT WEEK: We will roll with the typical summer forecast through the week: partly sunny, hot, humid days with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.” Highs will be generally in the low to mid 90s.

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TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, but Typhoon Nepartak is nearing Taiwan in the western Pacific. Sustained winds are in the 150 mph range, but slow weakening is expected over the next 24 hours.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights and only isolated storms on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through early next week. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 80s. See a detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

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