Sales: According to the Lee County Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, Lee County area residential sales totaled 197 units during July, a decrease in sales of 1.5 percent or three units below the same period last year. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
Forecast: July sales were four units or 2 percent below ACRE’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through July projected 1,020 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,163 units, a favorable difference of 14 percent.
Supply: The Lee County housing inventory in July was 510 units, a decrease of 24 percent from July 2015 and a 65 percent decrease from the July inventory peak in 2010 (1,472 units). July inventory in Lee County decreased 4 percent from June. This direction is on target with historical data indicating that July inventory on average (2011-15) decreases from June by 4 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in July was 2.6 months of housing supply. Restated, at the July sales pace, it would take 2.6 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months during July. Lee County was one of Alabama’s most balanced markets in July, especially compared to July 2010’s 16.5 months of supply.
Demand: July residential sales decreased 11 percent from June. This direction contrasts with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that July sales on average (2011-15) increase by 0.1 percent from June. Existing single-family home sales account for 60 percent of total sales (up from 52 percent in July 2015), while 21 percent were new home sales (down from 30 percent during July 2015) and 17 percent were condos (down from 18 percent).
Pricing: The Lee County median sales price during July was $187,500, down 0.3 percent from last July. The July median sales price decreased 13 percent compared to the June median sales price. This direction contrasts with historical data (2011-15) indicating that the July median sales price on average increases from the June price by 0.5 percent. Pricing can fluctuate from month to month as the sample size of data (closed transactions) is subject to seasonal buying patterns. ACRE recommends contacting a local real estate professional to discuss the latest pricing trends.
Industry perspective: “Financial volatility resulting from Brexit has created some uncertainty among investors as yields on government bonds have dropped sharply, Treasury yield curves have flattened over the past month, and the Chinese Yuan has depreciated to a six-year low against the dollar,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “In addition, our view on interest rates continues to be ‘low for long’ as we believe a Fed decision to raise interest rates will likely be on hold until June of 2017. Brexit’s economic impact on the U.S. will likely be limited, especially from a trade perspective, and should be a near-term positive for the housing and mortgage market as falling mortgage rates have prompted new refinance demand.” For the full report, click here.
Click here to generate more graphs from the Lee County July Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.