James Spann: Benign weather and active tropics for Alabama

James Spann Alabama NewsCenter Weather Forecast August 25 from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

HOT, HUMID DAYS: An upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little day to day change in our weather. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with just a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, generally between 2 and 8 p.m. Highs in the 91-95 degree range for most communities. If you are looking for cool, crisp air, August in Alabama is not the time or the place for that.

Of course, next week’s weather will be determined by the tropical weather situation, but at the moment it sure looks like any issues will be east of Alabama, meaning our weather will pretty much remain the same.

TOPIC: TROPICS: Gaston finally achieved hurricane status this morning in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve over open water and is no threat to land.

The most curious feature remains “Invest 99L”, which is near Hispaniola. I would suggest this might be the most discussed open tropical wave in history thanks to social media and some clickbait sites.

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Here is the latest…

*A NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating 99L early this morning; we will know more about the structure of the system soon.

*Until we get a well defined low level circulation center, computer models will struggle with initializing the system, and model output will remain suspect. However, there is pretty decent agreement among tropical and global models this morning.

*The wave will move up toward the Florida peninsula, and whether it stays an open wave, or becomes a depression or storm, the main impact initially will be the threat of heavy rain over the weekend for Central and South Florida.

*Most models turn the wave northward east of Alabama, keeping the main rain shield over Florida and Georgia.

AL99_current

*Should the center stay over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could indeed grow stronger, perhaps to hurricane strength. But, if the center remains over the Florida Peninsula, it will be mainly a big rain-maker.

*Please understand great uncertainty remains, so keep up with current blog discussions and info from NHC. All of this could change.

*If 99L gets a name, it will be “Hermine”… (Her MEEN)

AT THE BEACH: The weather looks great for the Central Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sun daily with only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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For more weather news and information, visit AlabamaWX.

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