NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN: This is the 15th consecutive day with no rain at Birmingham (based on data at the airport), and it looks like we go at least 10 more days with no significant chance of rain. Drought conditions will worsen, so avoid outdoor burning is possible, and conserve water. October is the driest month of the year in Alabama, so climatology is certainly not on our side. Rain producing systems become much more frequent in November and December, our late fall severe weather season.
REST OF THE WEEK: Sunny warm days, fair nights. Tomorrow could very well be the warmest day of the week with a high between 87 and 90 degrees; mid 80s are likely Wednesday and Thursday. We begin a cooling trend Friday as the high drops into the upper 70s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Dangerous Hurricane Matthew passes to the east, and the northerly flow will become more prevalent. We project a high in the upper 70s Saturday, but close to 70 Sunday as the coolest air so far this season arrives. We drop into the 40s Sunday morning, and colder pockets have a good chance of seeing the 30s by early Monday morning… just maybe a touch of frost across the colder valleys and protected areas.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Another delightful night for high school football games Friday night… clear with temperatures falling through the 60s.
Auburn will play at Mississippi State Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from 77 at kickoff, to near 81 degrees by the fourth quarter.
Alabama is also on the road; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff)… a perfect evening for football with temperatures falling from 67 at kickoff into the 50s by the fourth quarter. The sky will be clear.
BARBER VINTAGE MOTORCYCLE FESTIVAL: This event runs from this Friday through Sunday at the Barber Motorsports Park. Highs in the upper 70s Friday, but cooling into the mid 70s Saturday, and low 70s Sunday. Sunny days, clear nights. The weather could not be better. Get ticket information right here.
NEXT WEEK: No rain; sunny days, fair nights. Highs mostly in the 70s, lows mostly in the 50s, although 40s are likely Monday morning. The 12Z GFS run is printing a low of 45 degrees for Birmingham early Monday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
MATTHEW: Hurricane Matthew is a very dangerous storm with sustained winds of 140 mph; it will set up a life threatening situation for Haiti tomorrow as it moves northward (motion for now is only 5-10 mph).
Hurricane warnings are also in effect for Jamaica, the eastern part of Cuba, and the Southeast Bahamas.
Unfortunately, the 12Z model set has shifted to the left, suggesting a track very close to the East Coast of the U.S. Interests from Miami all the way up to Cape Cod will have to watch this hurricane very closely.
The only impact for Alabama is northerly flow on the far west side of the circulation this weekend, pulling down cool, dry air. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details and thoughts on Matthew.
AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, hardly any showers on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend with highs in the 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.
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