Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa-area residential sales totaled 201 units during September, up 6 percent from the same period last year. The September average for sales from 2011 to 2015 was 157 units. Year-to-date sales of 1,924 units represents a 17 percent rise from the same period last year. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.

Home sales in Tuscaloosa rose 6 percent year-over-year in September to 201 sales.

Forecast: September results were 23 units or 13 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through September projected 1,796 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,924 units, a favorable difference of 7 percent.

Supply: Tuscaloosa September housing inventory totaled 1,183 units, a decrease of 12 percent from September 2015. September inventory rose by 0.7 percent compared to August. Historical data indicate that September inventory on average (2011-15) increases from August by 1.5 percent. Inventory has now declined 39 percent from the September peak (1,949 units) reached in 2007.

Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 17 percent year-over-year during September to 5.9 months. Restated, at the September sales pace, it would take 5.9 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during September.

Demand: September residential sales were 12 percent below the prior month. The decrease is consistent with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that September sales on average (2011-15) decrease from August by 7.8 percent. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 80 percent of total sales (down from 82 percent in September 2015), while 15 percent were new home sales (up from 10 percent) and 5 percent were condo buyers (down from 8 percent).

Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in September was $166,000, an increase of 3 percent compared to September 2015. The median sales price was also up 14 percent from August’s price. Historical data (2011-15) indicate that the median sales price in September typically increases from August by 5.3 percent. It should be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry perspective: “The decline in the HPSI (Home Purchase Sentiment Index) over the past two months from the survey-high in July of 86.5 adds a note of caution to our moderately positive housing outlook,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Downside changes came in particular from the HPSI components ‘mortgage rate direction’ and ‘good time to buy a house.’ In addition, the starter home tight supply and rising home prices as well as the unsettled political environment are likely giving many consumers a reason to pause or question their home purchase sentiment.” For the full report, click here.