Sales: According to the North Alabama Multiple Listing Service, Morgan County (Decatur) residential sales totaled 113 units during October, unchanged from the same period last year. Year to date, home sales through October increased 14.2 percent from the same period of 2015. Another resource to review is the Annual Report.
Click here for all Morgan County residential data.
Forecast: October sales were eight units or 8 percent above the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through October projected 1,071 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 1,267 units, an 18 percent positive difference.
Supply: Morgan County area housing inventory totaled 722 units, a decrease of 12 percent from October 2015. Inventory was 5 percent below the prior month. Historical data indicate October inventory on average (2011-15) decreases from September by 3.4 percent.
The inventory-to-sales ratio during October was 6.4 months of housing supply. Restated, at the October sales pace, it would take 6.4 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand) is considered to be approximately 6 months during October. Last October, the months of supply stood at 7.2 months. The months of supply has declined 60 percent from the October peak reached in 2010 (13 months), which is encouraging news.
Demand: October residential sales dipped 25 percent from the prior month. Historical data indicate October sales on average (2011-15) decrease from September by 2 percent. The average days on market until a listing sold was 101 days, down 13 percent from last October.
Pricing: The Morgan County median sales price during October was $134,500, which is 16 percent above October 2015’s $116,000 and 3 percent above the September median sales price ($130,500). Differing sample size from month to month can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Industry perspective: “Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate,” said Doug Duncan of Fannie Mae. “Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013, weighing on the index. However, this component of the HPSI (home purchase sentiment index) is volatile from month to month, and the firming trend in wage gains from the October jobs report, if sustained, may foreshadow an improving view in the near future.”
Click here to generate more graphs from the Morgan County October Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply.