James Spann: Periodic rain for Alabama through tomorrow

RADAR CHECK: Patches of rain are on radar at mid-afternoon, mostly south of a stalled surface front near I-20.
Temperatures are in the 50s north of the front, over the northern third of the state, with balmy 70s south of the front down in far South Alabama. The front will slowly lift northward tonight, and we expect periods of rain through tomorrow. The high tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s, and additional rain amounts of around one-half inch are likely. Some thunder is possible in the unstable air over South Alabama, but severe weather is not expected.
Wednesday looks dry and cooler with gradual clearing; the high will be in the 55- to 60-degree range.
ARCTIC SHOT THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The weather turns sharply colder Thursday; we expect a high between 41 and 45 degrees despite sunshine in full force, and a north wind of 12-22 mph will make it feel colder. The low early Friday will be in the 20- to 25-degree range, with potential for upper teens across colder valleys and protected areas. Friday will be sunny with a high in the upper 40s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Southerly winds will usher in moist air Saturday; developing showers are likely with a high in the mid 60s. An approaching cold front will bring potential for very active weather Saturday night and Sunday; unstable air surges into the southern half of the state, and we can’t rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms there. Temperatures Sunday will rise into the 70s over South Alabama.
In contrast, behind the front, temperatures will fall over far North Alabama and could actually reach the 30s by mid to late afternoon Sunday. The 12Z Global Forecast System hints there could be a brief window for rain to change to snow north of U.S. 278, but the reliable European model says “not so fast,” with very little chance of anything significant, and that solution seems more plausible based on projected thermal fields.
We will mention a chance of rain and thunderstorms Sunday morning, with falling temperatures during the afternoon as rain moves out. Some communities could touch 70 degrees Sunday morning, but then be closer to 40 degrees by late afternoon as temperatures go the wrong way.
NEXT WEEK: A very active pattern means little if any forecast confidence more than seven days in advance; for now it looks mostly dry Monday, but rain could return as early as Tuesday. For now it looks like temperatures will be close to average levels around Christmas Day here, with highs in the 50s.
Again, there is no evidence of any high-impact snow or ice event for Alabama through Christmas Day.
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