RAIN YES, SLEET MAYBE: Strap on your seat belts! The forecast for the start of 2017 looks complicated and is likely to feature something for everyone, ranging from sunshine to thunderstorms to wintry precipitation.

Clouds increased across the Southeast overnight as good Pacific moisture began to be pumped into the area. The surface flow was also beginning to go southerly, picking up low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures were all over the board this morning, ranging from 32 at Fort Payne to 48 at Mobile. Flash flood watches were issued for portions of Southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, Southwest Alabama and extreme western sections of the Florida Panhandle in anticipation of the multi-day rain that we’ve been forecasting.

While temperatures near the ground are warm, the temperature/moisture profile of the lower portion of the atmosphere still supports the potential for precipitation to begin as light sleet. Radar showed numerous patches of light rain in Alabama with almost no observation sites reporting rain at the ground. The dry layer near the ground will allow some evaporative cooling, thus the potential for some light sleet as the column moistens up. But by this afternoon the temperature/moisture profile will have moderated, with all precipitation coming in the form of rain. It will be chilly today, with highs climbing only into the lower 50s.

GAME DAY WEATHER: Weather will not affect either the Alabama or the Auburn games, since both are being played inside domed stadiums. But you may need some rain gear going and coming from the games. Alabama faces the Washington Huskies in the Georgia Dome this afternoon at 2 p.m. The day looks cloudy, with rain expected to move into northern Georgia during the evening. The high will be near 50 in downtown Atlanta.

Auburn goes against the Oklahoma Sooners in New Orleans in the Super Dome on Monday evening at 7:30 p.m. Weather looks rather warm, wet and unsettled, with showers and thunderstorms likely and temperatures in the middle 70s.

AT THE BEACH: If your plans include the beach, cloudy skies are forecast together with multiple chances of rain for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s today, climbing into the lower 70s Sunday and the first several days of next week. See the complete Gulf Coast 7-Day Planner here.

NEXT WEEK: Sunday will be a wet day, with rain off and on. Some peals of thunder are possible as well.

On Monday, the Storm Prediction Center has the standard slight risk area for severe weather across a large portion of Mississippi, most of Louisiana, East Texas and a small sliver of Alabama from the West Central counties to Mobile. CAPE values are forecast to near 2,000 j/kg over the slight risk area, along with helicity values in the 200-300 range. SPC may adjust this area in future updates, so we’ll have to watch carefully to see if there will be any impact on North and Central Alabama.

Tuesday will be a transition day as we dry out, with precipitation ending from the west. Monday and Tuesday should be fairly warm days with a strong southerly flow, so highs will be well into the 60s. Global Forecast System MOS guidance suggests we could reach the 70s on Monday, but I’m not as optimistic as MOS is, since we’ll have showers and thick clouds around.

Rainfall during the five-day period ending Thursday morning will be in the 2- to 4-inch range across North and Central Alabama, with amounts of 4 to 7 inches possible from Dothan westward across Mobile and into the southern half of Louisiana.

Wednesday and Thursday will be somewhat nondescript days with partly cloudy skies and temperatures kept on the chilly side. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than typical for early January, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.

Friday is shaping up to be a challenging day for forecasters. The ECMWF and the GFS are completely out of phase with each other, so confidence on the forecast for the end of the week and into the weekend is not terribly high. The normally stable ECMWF has been flipping dramatically between runs, while the GFS has maintained at least some continuity, so for now I’m going with the GFS. A short wave moves across the Central U.S. on Friday and into Saturday. This is forecast to set up a broad low in the Gulf as colder air to the north sinks southward. As the GFS did yesterday, it is suggesting a band of sleet and light snow across northern portions of the Southeast on Friday. The best chances for any snow will be across the Tennessee River Valley and northern third of Mississippi. It is much too early to be able to say whether this could create any travel issues, particularly because our ground temperatures are so warm. But as we know all too well, those exposed elevated roadways and bridges will respond differently. So this situation requires careful watching.

By Saturday the upper trough moves eastward, sweeping the clouds and precipitation with it but leaving us somewhat chilly, with highs in the 40s.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS has gone quite bullish on the return of the upper ridge over the Gulf and Bahamas. This would definitely suggest some milder weather for the Southeast.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Brian Peters and the rest of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWX.