James Spann: Rain tapers off tonight; more storms tomorrow for Alabama?

RADAR CHECK: Widespread rain and thunderstorms are over Alabama this afternoon. Thankfully, the rain moved in early enough in the day to keep the air stable and mitigate the severe weather threat for the northern half of the state. A tornado watch remains in effect for parts of Southwest Alabama until 6 p.m.

Rain and storms will end this evening from west to east as the lead short wave aloft passes on to the east. The severe weather threat this evening will be confined to far South Alabama, where the air is more unstable.

TONIGHT: Clouds linger, and we don’t expect anything more than a few scattered showers; the low overnight will be in the mid 50s.

MORE STORMS TOMORROW? One thing is for sure: Tomorrow will be a warm February day, with a high in the mid 70s. And, with a cold front approaching, there is a chance we could see a few more storms, but nothing as widespread as today. In fact, with a capping inversion expected, a decent part of the day will be dry, and many places will see no rain at all. But, where the cap does break, storms could be strong to severe with potential for hail and strong winds. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a “moderate” risk of severe storms for the northern half of the state tomorrow.

MUCH COLDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The sky becomes mostly sunny Thursday, but the day will be breezy and sharply colder, with temperatures holding in the 40s. Then, we drop into the 25- to 29-degree range early Friday morning as the cold air settles into the state. Friday will be cool and dry, with a high in the mid 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday looks mostly dry, although a few isolated showers could show up over the northern quarter of the state by afternoon. And we turn warmer, with temperatures rising into the upper 60s. Sunday looks like a mostly cloudy, mild day with with only widely scattered showers; the high Sunday will be in the low 70s.

NEXT WEEK: A dynamic weather system will move into Alabama with rain and storms Wednesday night and Thursday. The latest Global Forecast System run (12Z) shows a surface low moving right through Central Alabama.

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